The Weekly Meat

Kentucky Derby 141

Longtime friends of The Weekly Meat know to check back here before the first Saturday in May each year — regardless of how infrequently I might post otherwise. And regardless of my equine handicapping abilities, each year, one thing is for certain: All is right in the world for those brief two minutes when I have a drink in my hand, watching the race with my kids and friends.

That said, this year's race field is arguably the most exciting in ages, with a slew of horses that have run Beyer speed figures over (or at least near) 100. Looking, especially, at MATERIALITY, DORTMUND, AMERICAN PHAROAH, and UPSTART. Loads of talent in those four alone — and there are others worth watching as well: CARPE DIEM, TENCENDUR, BOLO, FIRING LINE, FROSTED, and maybe even INTERNATIONAL STAR.

I'd happily throw out the other half of the field, and let these ten run. But the fact remains that with a 20-horse field, the Derby is not just a horse race, but a rodeo as well — in which crazy things can and do happen, and the cream does not always rise to the top.

So where does this all leave us?

Well, it's damn tough to bet on a short-money favorite, but it'll also be damn tough to beat trainer Bob Baffert this year — who is saddling the two most talented horses, in DORTMUND and AMERICAN PHAROAH. Both have pretty much led wire-to-wire in their combined 11 wins, though, and it's doubtful either might have a chance to do the same in such a crowded and talented field. Still, if they're not in your top five — as they are in mine — you're just being contrary.

DORTMUND (3-1)

Undefeated in six races, with three Beyers over a hundred. Any arguments against this horse — who has the better post position (8, as opposed to 18) than his stable-mate just feels like nitpicking. This is a fantastic horse.

AMERICAN PHAROAH (5-2)

Has won his last five starts, with four Beyers over a hundred, and has been working out like an absolute monster. Unless he's been over-trained (doubtful), he is highly tweaked and ready to rip up the track.

UPSTART (15-1)

He has yo-yo'd back and forth a bit in his past several races, but has genuine speed, doesn't seem to mind crowds, and is always in the money. Those three things together put him in the mix for me.

CARPE DIEM (8-1)

If — and in this field, it's a big if — he can avoid an avalanche of traffic and get a clean trip from the number 2 post, this horse has the ability to indeed seize the day, save ground, and chew up some front-runners in the last half mile.

INTERNATIONAL STAR (20-1)

20-1 are the longest odds I'd take this year. But if that's attractive, this might just be your horse. His training runs are nothing to write home about, but he's won his last three races, with increasing Beyers each time, and has closing speed. If he has a clean trip, and the front-runners beat each other up, this nag could steal the race.

So which of these athletes is going to get after it, reap some luck, and stretch to the wire first? Hell if I know. If I'm putting down hard-earned money, I'll do it on UPSTART and INTERNATIONAL STAR. But I won't necessarily be pulling for them. Because neither is going to win the Triple Crown. But either DORTMUND or AMERICAN PHAROAH could, and so they're the one's I'll watch. And root for.

Pick your favorite name, silks, or throw a dart at the Racing Form. Because I can tell you this: This year's race — as well as the Preakness (in two weeks) and the Belmont (in five) — will be well worth your time.

Giddyap!

Post time, this Saturday on NBC, is ~6:20 ED. And remember to make your simple syrup early enough to chill it before mixing those Mint Juleps!

Handicapping the Kentucky Derby

Well, sportsfans, another year has passed, and here we are, approaching the first Saturday in May. Friends of The Weekly Meat know that I handicap the Kentucky Derby each year. Sometimes I'm right, sometimes, I'm wrong. But I like to think my on-base percentage would be high enough to make sabermetricians proud.

In any event, I don't have hours for handicapping this year, so briefly....

There are, of course, unshareable techniques to my handicapping process — some of which involve a highly flammable salve of bourbon and snake oil — but here are a few of the basics.

The Derby has grown with American waistlines to now pull in the maximum of 20 horses each year. And each year there is much fat among the substance. The first thing I do is to cut out the pretenders, and vanity entries of rich white and Arab guys attempting to add another inch to their peckers by paying the ~$30-grand entry fee to run their nags into glue.

You can find all of the information you need — and I recommend you check it out — in the Daily Racing Form's past performances (this year's here, in PDF format).

Next, pour yourself several fingers of medicinal-grade Kentucky bourbon and sit down with a pen and the mystic charts of the Racing Form (explanations here and here, for those of you novice at such things).

In this race, I look for five main things:

• Horses that have run Beyer speed figures over (or at least around) 100. (This year, CALIFORNIA CHROME has standout Beyers or 107 and 108 in his last two races.) If a horse hasn't reached or run consistently in the 90s, I toss them out of the mix and don't give them a second thought. Looking at you, HARRY's HOLIDAY, WE MISS ARTIE, VINCEREMOS, and COMMANDING CURVE.
• Horses with improving Beyers (trending up in recent races). See SAMRAAT, CHITU, and maybe WILDCAT RED.
• Horses that have had success at a mile or more.
• Horses that have been working out sharply. See CALIFORNIA CHROME, CHITU, maybe CANDY BOY and MEDAL COUNT.
• Horses with value. Yes, CALIFORNIA CHROME is a great horse, and is the clear favorite. But why bet a horse at near even money for a race in which the favorite rarely wins (because anything can, and does, happen in a field of 20) and horses at longer odds often pay off well?

So where does this all leave us this year? Again, pressed for time, but I spent a half hour with the Form, and for your parimutuel pleasure, I'll pick two that offer great mid-range odds for quality horses with a nose for winning:

SAMRAAT (15-1)

Raced six times and lost only once (to WICKED STRONG in the Wood Memorial), his speed numbers have improved and been creeping up toward 100. He seems well-placed — next to CALIFORNIA CHROME in the 6 hole — and ready to run a strong race.

CHITU (20-1)

Lightly raced, with only four starts (3 wins and a place) — but again, shows improving speed (hitting 102 the last time out), and if he can avoid traffic and stay the distance, I like his odds and moxie.

There you go, folks. See how it all shakes out this Saturday on NBC (post time is ~6:20 EDT), and remember to make your simple syrup early enough to chill it before mixing those Mint Juleps!

 

Postscipt: Well, it turns out I picked the right horses. IF the race had been the length of the Preakness. But the Derby is all about the final furlong, and my two picks tired down the stretch against the beast that is CALIFORNIA CHROME, who is indeed a great horse. Possibly even a superhorse, and a genuine Triple Crown threat.

One Year Later: The Marathon Bombing

We were out of town last year, when the bombs went off on Boylston St. I had our daughters in my home town of Philly, and my wife had our son in her home town of Chicago.

Though the affinity felt by each of us is strong for our native cities, we have been living in Boston for a combined 35+ years, and the moment we heard news of the unfolding tragedy (pretty much instantaneously), we each had the somewhat perverse reaction of needing to be back home. Back in Boston, with each other, together as a family, in our community, and with our people.

We got our wish a day or two later, hugged each other, checked in with friends, made our way through the other-worldly "shelter in place" lockdown of our affected neighboring town that Friday. And then quietly toasted the area's finest (some of whom, undoubtedly, were from the very same FBI tactical team visited upon yours truly) when, blessedly, it was all over later that night.

But the attack was a personal affront that stung us to the core — as it, clearly, was meant to.

The marathon is an inherent part of Boston. Arguably, one of the reasons we as a city are comparatively fit. It chatters in the back of our collective legs and minds any time we run a race 10k or longer.

Marathon Monday, by design, falls each year on Patriots' Day — commemorating the start of the Revolutionary War, with the battles of Lexington and Concord — so it is literally a state holiday throughout Massachusetts. Kids are out of school not only that day, but the whole week — and so they can get out and cheer on the runners. The Sox play an early game at Fenway, and afterwards the crowd filters out and makes their way toward Boylston to cheer on the finishers.

And you do cheer them, no matter where you are on the course, no matter how cynical or reserved you had previously thought you might be, you cheer complete strangers. Because it's damn impressive when you're out there. And because Boston. Because community. And because that's what kind of day it is. Every year.

The people running when the bombs went off were nowhere near the lead runners. Rather, those finishing around the four hour mark are the runners, like me, who run 10-minute miles. The ones with big hearts, running only to finish.

I was horrified to think that the bombs went off then. As they were finishing. Or approaching the finish. Or still a mile away. Or still two miles out. I could never aspire to run a three-hour marathon. It's a faster pace than I can run even a 10k. But I can aspire to a four-hour race. And so they are my people.

The following was my first Facebook post after letting all know we were safe:

I may need knee surgery in the next month or two, and have never run more than 7.5 miles in a day. But the desire to run next year's race is suddenly greater than my fear of publicly shitting myself. Because fuck you you fucking terrorist shitbags; you do not get to win. Not this way. Not any way.

And to my mind, little has changed since. I am not running this year's race — the competition to get in was insane, and they've essentially outlawed the age-old practice of running as an unregistered "bandit" (now, with good reason) — but still hold exactly the same feeling.

Elisabeth Kübler-Ross and her five stages of grief do not hold with terrorism, because unless you are directly injured or affected by an attack, the stages of city- or country-wide grief are a bit different.

For starters, there is no denial stage. Not for me, at least. Not for 9/11, and not last year. Maybe it was my Jewish upbringing in the early '70s, or trips to Israel, but I knew we in the U.S. had been far too lucky for far too long, and our luck surely could not continue.

From there, it tends to flow as follows:

• Anger — Fuck you, idiots. You live in and benefit from this community, and then you turn around and shit on it all? No. Hell no. This is our fucking city. And a great one.
• Sadness — The death and maiming of innocent bystanders will be forever heartbreaking. There is simply no getting around that. If we cannot feel the overwhelming sadness, there is something seriously wrong with us.
• Acceptance — Terrorism is now a reality of our global community. We can and should continue to fight it, but at some point we do have to live with it, and prepare for it.
• Resolve — We cannot let the terrorists win. We fight by refusing to be terrified. And we win by living our lives and enjoying the things we do.

So let's do this. Resolve, above all. Boston Strong.

Good luck to all those running tomorrow! And to all out there cheering, enjoy!

Immodest Proposal

I found a letter recently that came to the house last summer, addressed to me. I still have the envelope. Aside from the shiny green star on it, it does not appear to be sent by a crazy person. And yet a woman I don't know proceeds to ask me for money. For her senior year of college.

Just to be clear, I don't exactly have that kind of cheddar floating around the bank account. Even for people I actually know, or to whom I have some actual connection.

We've all come to expect email phishing scams, but the use of snail mail struck me — seeming at once, both antiquated and more less fishy. But why me? I have no answers.

I mean, I was no shrinking violet 23-years ago, but didn't exactly father kids out of wedlock. I literally have no idea who Nicole Hamilton of Dayton, Tennessee is, why she chose to spend postage on me, how she got my address, or why she thinks I am wealthy enough or charitable enough to stand a loan to a complete stranger.

More than anything, I have no idea how anyone grows their cojones big enough to cold-call someone they don't know with this sort of request. But hell, we live in the entitlement society, and surely Nicole Hamilton of Dayton, Tennessee is as entitled as anyone to whittle a chunk off the now-staggering cost of higher education. But why this way? And why me? How targeted was this campaign? Whose mailing list did she buy? And what made her think doing so would be cost effective?

I could go on, but it's Monday, I'm at work, and I suppose I should do something today to, you know, earn my paycheck.

The Hot List: A Primer for 2014

People! It is once again the season for stand-up philosophy, bald-faced prognostication, and linguistic prestidigitation. Herewith, the only hot list you'll ever need this year — in alphabetical order for easy reference.

Take this with a grain of salt at your own peril. As always, last year's predictions proved entirely correct!

 

Out (so 2013)	In (so 2014)
ironic fake mustaches	razors; or at the very least, firemen
Ted Cruz	Cruising
#shutdown	Open Up and Say... Ahh!
saying "hashtag"	#over
Orange is the New Black	orange and black is the new black
Miley Cyrus's tongue	I'm pretty sure she's like 14, folks. And not even particularly good looking. Even for a hip-less boy.
Breaking Bad	Luther
neck tattoos	job interviews
beer pong	Pong. And beer.
hipsters	male-pattern baldness
cronuts	crowbars
macarons	McAdoo
gluten-free	dope smack
barbecue, the fad	barbecue, the food
Radiant Orchid	Emerald
Downton Abbey	The Fall
the whole "Keep Calm..." meme	this was dead last year, people
Bitcoin	biteme
"polar vortex"	climate change, you fucking idiots
Sharknado	Whalestrom!!
Google Glass	Groucho glasses
Amazon drones	public mini-Patriot missile banks
Chris Christie	Julie Christie
the Tea Party	legalized marijuana
sequestration	suggest castration
Obamacare	Just kidding. Sorry, suckers. STILL not going anywhere.
the least effective Congress ever	One would hope for no less than the second-least effective Congress ever
twerking	working

There you have it! Be safe out there this year, people.